Thursday, May 5, 2011

Myth of the Independent Voter ii

WaPo reports on a new Pew study suggesting that the Myth of the Independent Voter still holds true. Myth, the 1992 independent voter report, made a persuasive case that most Independents (two-thirds) are partisans who vote party line. In other words, most independent voters are Democrats and Republicans who don't have the balls to claim their party. WaPo on the Pew study:
Among the increasingly growing segment of Americans who identify with neither party and call themselves independents, there are fewer moderates. Many in the “middle” hold strong, ideological views. The study concluded that three groups in the center of the Pew typology “have very little in common, aside from their avoidance of partisan labels.”

“What we see is a much bigger and increasingly diverse middle,” said Andrew Kohut, president of the Pew center. “What’s striking about it is that they’re not so moderate. People in the middle have some strong, well-defined ideological points of view.”
The idea that there is some large bloc of independent voters that can be swayed one way or another is a myth. In reality there are Democrats and Republicans with a shadow contingent attached to each party that refuses to identify themselves but still reliably votes partisan. Look, independents, just man up and say you're a Dem or Repub, you're not fooling anybody except yourselves.


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5 comments:

Red Shoes said...

Hmmm... I will have to read that report you cited when I have some time. I view myself as an Independent. I most certainly do have strong, well-defined ideological beliefs. It's just that neither the Democrats or the Republicans are in line with my thoughts. When Bush was president, I felt I was a Democrat... now that Obama is in, I feel that I am more towards the Republicans. Of course, each seems to represent the extreme ends of their respective party.

I think that the so-called Independents are important and easily overlooked. The Independent vote elected Obama in 2008; the Independent vote sent another message to the Democratic Party in 2010.

Of course, maybe there is some logic in that argument... and Independents are ashame to show allegiance to either party.

~shoes~

E R Hull said...

Talked about this for awhile last night with @fullofenergydc who thought the Myth report didn't really address independent voters who vote party line but only because they feel they have no other choice. I sort of get that; a moderate Republican who votes Dem because they aren't happy with the Republican field. But I think you need to look at your voting record. If you (a person, not you specifically redshoes) call yourself an Independent and you vote Dem every time, are you really an Independent or are you someone who just doesn't like the Dem label?

After a few drinks I dropped the following crass analogy: if you call yourself bisexual and 99% of the people you've slept with have been of the opposite sex, are you really a bisexual?

The point I took away from Myth is that there is no Independent bloc that can be swayed one way or another. Most independents vote for their preferred party every time, so trying to get an independent who leans Republicans to vote Dem is probabaly a waste of time.

I don't think that means that candidates should just ignore "indendents", but I think it makes more sense to think in terms of there being only two parties.

Red Shoes said...

"I don't think that means that candidates should just ignore "indendents", but I think it makes more sense to think in terms of there being only two parties."

Good morning... Oh, I TOTALLY agree! I think that is where the point is being missed on those that refer to themselves as the 'Tea Party.' Not everyone that is placed into that group is of the same mind.

"After a few drinks I dropped the following crass analogy: if you call yourself bisexual and 99% of the people you've slept with have been of the opposite sex, are you really a bisexual?"

An old timer I used to know once told me... 'Shoes, all you have to do is suck one cock... just ONE cock... one time... but you'll be a cock sucker for the rest of your life....'

This guy was around 90 when he told me this. I bet he was a rounder in his younger days.

I enjoy your blog.

~shoes~

E R Hull said...

tx man, keep checking in

Red Shoes said...

I will...

~shoes~

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